Basketball For Beginners

Sigh . . . Those Guys

2011-06-16T21:41:00.001-05:00

Let's get this out of the way.

Yes, I hate the Heat. Yes, I hate LeBron -- he promoted himself as a reason to love living in Cleveland and as a hero of joy and hard work and it was all a big fat fucking lie. Yes, I hate Dwayne Wade -- to imply that anybody fakes injury or illness is rich coming from that guy, but to imply that Dirk Nowitzki, of all possible people . . . it's sheer cheek is breathtaking. I dislike Chris Bosh, but at least he's been honest all these years in saying his life in Toronto sucked and the love of the fans there would never mean as much as the national stage.

I think what happened was, going off their experiences playing on Team USA back in Beijing and their bond as friends, JWB and their representatives managed to fudge a way to get the three of them together. (Such fudging goes against the league's rules about not speculating along such lines until a player's contractual obligation has been fulfilled, but never mind.) What they didn't realize or chose to overlook is that there's a totally different dynamic at work between friends and between teammates. Friends support each other; teammates bring out the best in each other. JWB haven't figured out how to do that yet. They might, eventually, or they might not.

In any event, I am glad that their season ended in a firey and embarassing crash (apologies to any actual Heat fans, the ones that've stuck with this team even when they were awful), and I'm glad that it was my Mavs that made it happen. It adds a pleasing symmatry to this thing.
-BJ

From There To Here

2011-06-16T08:35:00.003-05:00

I remember the day.

I remember the day Himself and his Jedi Master were rumored to be back in Dallas, to put ink to paper and make it official. I remember coming south on Central Expressway and seeing, in the middle of an overcast sky, dark stormclouds hovering over the city of Dallas. As I passed through Plano it started pouring rain. It was, honestly, too eerie for words.

"Please, please let this not be an omen."

Almost a year has gone by. From a cool afternoon featuring stormclouds over Dallas to a crystal clear and awesomely hot summer evening. From a living room meeting amidst the wreckage of a broken season to scrambling for a place for private tears. From an angry sob in a parking lot in Frisco to an unbelieving shriek in a cloud of streamers and confetti.

From there, to here.

It was an omen.
-BJ

On Historical Context, or Why I Can't Say Dirk Is In The Top Ten

2011-05-10T15:25:00.001-05:00

In my opinion Dirk Nowitzki is King Of The Whole World, but that's not the question being asked.

Coach Carlisle went on the radio yesterday and stated his opinion that Dirk is one of the top ten basketball players ever to play the game. The NBA has a little radio-button poll on the front page, with Yes, No, and Maybe, with voting pretty evenly split between the three.

Here's my problem -- I can't answer that question.

I have no historical context. I'm not like a lot of the guys over on DB.com's Boards who're involved in the sport on the amateur or professional level and have been for many years. My contextual knowledge goes back three years and four months and is focused primarily on the Mavericks. That makes it impossible for me to wade in with informed opinions about the history of this sport of baskets and balls.

For example, someone made the statement that Kobe Bryant's 81 point game (22 January 2006 versus the Toronto Raptors) was a more impressive achievement than Wilt Chamberlain's 100 point game (2 March 1962 versus the New York Knicks), because Bryant's Lakers were on their way to a loss and Bryant went superhero, while Chamberlain just kept taking shots in a blowout victory. I can't make a statement one way or the other, because I haven't seen either game. Likewise I can't contribute much to the Chamberlain v. Russell arguement, or the Bird v. Magic arguement, or His Holiness The Jordan, Best Ever (Why or Why Not) question. And it's not all about debate fuel -- I've read columns about the mind-blowing-coolness of Julius Erving, but I've never seen any of his games. From what I've read, that's a deprivation; he was just that fucking cool.

I'm not looking for the Complete Archives Of Basketball To This Point. I'm not that obsessive. But it would be nice to be able to order a tape or DVD or download a video file of some complete games from those great moments in history type deals. Highlights are designed to reinforce opinions and text doesn't get the point across quite the same way.

Why watch when you already know the ending? For the same reason I've read The Stand a couple hundred times -- because the beauty is in the prose.
-BJ

Make That A Really Lousy Fortuneteller

2011-05-10T06:53:00.000-05:00

Nobody outside Dallas -- and damned few inside of it -- thought the Mavs would win the semis against the Lakers.

Nobody at all thought this would happen.

The dust has settled and the Western Conference Semifinals is over, Dallas Mavericks 4, Los Angeles Lakers 0.

Dallas is playing their best basketball at the right time, and it hit Los Angeles like a Dran-O cocktail.

Or here's a more elegant analogy -- the Lakers have been one of the diamonds of professional sports. But diamonds are brittle and if you hit them right they shatter.

After Game Three, the uneasy murmur was that, if any matchup could produce the NBA's first ever come-back-from-three-down playoff series, it would have to be the Lakers and the Mavericks. A defending champion . . . a Kobe Bryant led defending champion . . . a Kobe Bryant led defending champion whose legendary head coach is sailing off into retirement . . . c'mon, they wouldn't just roll over and die, right?

Right?

The 2008 Finals was the first Final series I ever watched, and I was deeply impressed by the sheer level of fuckitall displayed by the Kobe-led Lakers during Game Six. So I foresaw Game Four going one of two ways. Either the Lakers would unite, make the necessary adjustments (steer more offense through Bynum, do a better job defending the three), put up their best possible fight. For pride, for the sake of their coach, for a chance -- however slim -- to take back control of the series, for the right just to play another game. Or they'd pack it in, zombie-shuffle through the game, and Dallas would blow them to kingdom come.

Final score, 122-86. Kingdom Come now has a crater on the far side surrounded by shreds of purple and yellow fabric. It's the first time Phil Jackson's ever been swept in a series; an ugly ending to a proud career.

Add injury to insult. A couple of the Lakers decided they didn't want to wait until the final buzzer to leave the arena.

I'll tackle this sequentially -- in the fourth quarter Lamar Odom got fouled in the act and went to the line. After his first free-throw there was a pause in the action; the refs had to consult on something. Odom flicked the ball at the hoop and Dirk swatted it. Words were exchanged. No techs. You don't see it on the broadcast because the ESPN guys had cut to a graphic.

When Dallas went on offense, Odom got on Dirk and shoved him off balance (thank God, Dirk didn't fall over). The ref, seeing this for the dick move it was and trying to contain a situation that was getting uglier by the minute, called a Flagrant-2 and tossed Odom out of the game.

Later, JJ had the ball and drove it for a layup. Andrew Bynum elevated, and instead of going for the ball he cocked his elbow and caught JJ in the ribcage, just under his right arm. JJ crumpled and went fetal. It took him a few minutes to get up. The ref immediately ejected Bynum, who left the court alongside (of all people) Ron Artest. As he was leaving, Bynum shucked out of his jersey and sneered at nothing. Postgame comments boiled down to, "We were getting embarassed, so I clobbered somebody." This isn't the first time he's done this either. According to The Word, he put Gerald Wallace in the hospital earlier this year.

The NBA needs to slap this clown down hard. Keep hammering the point home that the butcher shop era is over.

So, let's cut it to basics. Our Dallas Mavericks -- the guys that smart money picked to get flushed out of the first round by Portland -- have swept the defending champions. As a special added bonus, the soonest the Western Conference Finals can start is Sunday. A whole week off!
-BJ

I'd Make A Lousy Fortuneteller

2011-05-06T00:12:00.000-05:00

First of all, Dallas eliminates Portland in six. Fuckin' yay. My sanity cracked a little after Game Four -- when I said I'd personally watched this team blow bigger leads, I wasn't asking for a demonstration. Dallas took the next game at home and won an elimination game. In the Rose Garden. Against a team that just owned them there during the regular season.

Dallas advances, from Portland to Los Angeles. Felt like jumping out of the frying pan and into a volcano.

Before Game One, Fisher asked the regular contributors on DB.com for their series predictions. Crossing my fingers behind my back, I said Mavericks in seven. That was with grave reservations. I mean, these are the Los Angeles goddamn Lakers. Masterminded by Jackson, led by Bryant, anchored by Gasol, fueled by Bynum, backed by Odom . . . I would've been happy with the Mavericks playing competative games.

Two days later, the Mavericks are up 2-0, the Lakers are showing clear stress fractures, Jackson's strategic mastery hasn't shown up yet, Kobe's trying to jump-shoot his team back into games, Gasol is putting up the most insipid double-doubles I've ever seen, the Laker bench is crumpling like tissue paper, and a lot of people who know a lot more about the game than I do are looking quite sheepish.

Dirk Nowitzki, the guy who's taken the lion's share of the crap for Dallas's postseason impotence, has outplayed Bryant in just about every way imaginable. The Lakers cannot stop him. Dirk might miss shots, but it's not because of anything LA is doing. Jason Kidd owns the Laker guards. Tyson and Brendan are doing a good job making the paint a minefield. Los Angeles's bench, supposedly a match for Dallas's, has been AWOL. And JJ Barea just embarassed the entire Laker team in the fourth quarter last night. With LA unwilling to leave Dirk alone, JJ had all the room he needed to take the ball to the rack or drive-and-kick.

Yes I know it's not over. But . . . it is.

The Lakers are capable of winning games. The Mavericks haven't executed perfectly by any means. But the Lakers cannot take back this series. Dallas has reduced the Lakers to Kobe and Kobe's Audience, and that's not enough. Already the forbidden word -- sweep -- is being uttered. I wish to God I could be there. The AAC is going to go bonkers tomorrow night.
-BJ

2011 Playoffs, Round One -- #3 DAL v #6 POR

2011-04-15T07:31:00.000-05:00

A quick, stats-heavy, very thumbnail history of the 2010-2011 season series:

Series tied at 2-2

Splits:
Dallas against Portland: 51.0 FG% -- 34.9 3P% -- 83.6 FT% -- 7.0 ORB -- 37.0 TRB -- 23.3 APG -- 5.0 SPG -- 3.0 BPG -- 96.0 PPG
Portland against Dallas: 47.8 FG% -- 30.5 3P% -- 73.5 FT% -- 11.3 ORB -- 37.3 TRB -- 20.5 APG 7.0 SPG -- 2.2 BPG -- 96.8 PPG
*the home team won both their games
*average margin of victory 4.75 points

Game One -- December 15, 2010, Portland at Dallas
103-98 W

Stats:
Portland: 42-85 FG -- .494 FG% -- 3-14 3P -- .214 3P% -- 11-18 FT -- .611 FT% -- 12 ORB -- 37 TRB -- 26 AST -- 5 STL -- 1 BLK -- 8 TOV -- 17 PF
Dallas: 40-74 FG -- .541 FG% -- 3-16 3P -- .188 3P% -- 20-21 FT -- .952 FT% -- 5 ORB -- 36 TRB -- 20 AST -- 7 STL -- 11 TOV -- 4 BLK -- 16 PF

The game in brief:
After falling behind by 17 in the third, the Trailblazers rallied to tie it 93-all with 2:07 left. The Mavs finished by outscoring the 'Blazers 10-5, thanks mostly to Dirk's shots finally finding their way home after three subpar quarters.

Quotes:
“We had a big lead there again, and just hit a bad stretch again. “We just couldn’t get any stops.” -Dirk Nowitzki

"Dirk made two really tough shots, that’s what he does. We did our best to make the shots tough, but he still made them.” -LaMarcus Aldridge

Video:
http://www.nba.com/video/games/mavericks/2010/12/15/0021000377_por_dal_recap.nba

Game Two -- Jaunary 4, 2011, Portland at Dallas
84-81 W

Stats:
Portland: 33-79 FG -- 41.8 FG% -- 4-16 3P -- 25.0 3P% -- 11-17 FT -- 64.7 FT% -- 14 ORB -- 46 TRB -- 17 AST -- 5 STL -- 3 BLK -- 8 TOV -- 17 PF
Dallas: 33-77 FG -- 42.9 FG% -- 8-22 3P -- 36.4 3P% -- 10-13 FT -- 76.9 FT% -- 12 ORB -- 46 TRB -- 22 AST -- 3 STL -- 13 TOV -- 2 BLK -- 16 PF

The game in brief:
Injuries -- Caron Butler, out for season after surgery to repair a ruptured patellar tendon, Dirk Nowitzki, sprained knee, Brandon Roy, injured knee. Dallas's defense kept Portland at bay and a late scoring surge from Jason Terry put the Mavs over the top. This game was one of only two games -- and the only one over a winning team -- the Mavs won without Dirk.

Quotes:
"The fourth quarter is Jet's show. He's done it over and over. He's so clutch, so much fun to watch. He was huge for us and I was happy for him to get his rhythm back. When he makes shots like that, we're deadly. It was great to see him in the fourth quarter back to his usual self." -Tyson Chandler

"Defensively, we've been a top team in the league all year long and we can't let up now because we're missing two of our main pieces. We have to really, really concentrate on defense now. We shut them down in the half-court defense in the final quarter, so that was big." -Jason Terry

Video:
http://www.nba.com/video/games/mavericks/2011/01/04/0021000509_por_dal_recap.nba

Game 3 -- March 15, 2011, Dallas at Portland
104-101 L

Stats:
Portland: 40-85 FG -- 47.1 FG% -- 6-14 3P -- 42.9 3P% -- 18-23 FT -- 78.3 FT% -- 15 ORB -- 34 TRB -- 19 AST -- 8 STL -- 7 TOV -- 5 BLK -- 15 PF
Dallas: 40-67 FG -- 59.7 FG% -- 9-21 3P -- 42.9 3P% -- 12-13 FT -- 92.3 FT% -- 6 ORB -- 33 TRB -- 30 AST -- 5 STL -- 15 TOV -- 4 BLK -- 17 PF

The game in brief:
Though Dallas shot the ball extremely well, Portland crashed the offensive glass and forced turnovers, resulting in 18 more shots and 10 more free throw attempts. The Trailblazers also got a throwback performance from Brandon Roy, who scored 21. Dirk had a chance to force overtime, but missed the shot.

Quote:
“In that situation you’ve love to get a completely unmolested shot, but it’s difficult. I thought Dirk did a good job of creating a look and we just didn’t get it down." -Coach Rick Carlisle

“Man, this is a tough one. You shoot 60 percent on the road and lose, that’s tough. Turnovers killed us down the stretch . . . We doubled them in turnovers and that really hurt us. Really, it was offensive rebounds in the first half and turnovers down the stretch.” -Dirk Nowitzki

Video:
http://www.nba.com/video/games/blazers/2011/03/15/0021001002_dal_por_recap.nba

Game 4 -- April 3, 2011, Dallas at Portland
104-96 L

Stats:
Portland: 39-73 FG -- 53.4 FG% -- 5-15 3P -- 33.3 3P% -- 21-25 FT -- 84.0 FT% -- 4 ORB -- 32 TRB -- 20 AST -- 10 STL -- 11 TOV -- 0 BLK -- 20 PF
Dallas: 34-70 FG -- 48.6% FG% -- 9-24 3P -- 37.5 3P% -- 19-26 FT -- 73.1 FT% -- 5 ORB -- 33 TRB -- 21 AST -- 5 STL -- 13 TOV -- 2 BLK -- 21 PF

The game in brief:
The final game of the Last Epic Road Trip -- three straight back-to-backs, six games in nine nights. Playing even worse than one might expect given that, Dallas got steamrollered. Portland led by 21 points at one point -- the 29-19 fourth quarter was all garbage time.

Quotes:
“No excuses, we’re not gonna make excuses. Our first half was poor, we knew that, we battled back in the second half, but they were better tonight.” -Coach Rick Carlisle

“You go through ups and downs in a season. Obviously, it’s a little late in the season to go through a down. That’s a little disappointing. But it could be worse. It could be in the playoffs." -Dirk Nowitzki

Video:
http://www.nba.com/video/games/blazers/2011/04/03/0021001148_dal_por_recap.nba

---

I could've wished for an easier first-rounder, if I'm honest. The Mavs do well just on shooting, but Portland crashes the hell out of the glass and tends to make brick walls for the good guys to run into. One can throw out the second and fourth games of the series, because of injuries -- see how fair I'm being? Portland was the only winning team we beat while Dirk was out with a bad knee -- and the resulting stat pool shows the teams are on a very even keel.

Quite honestly, I don't know what's gonna happen here. I think the result is a coin-toss at best, and I'm trying very hard not to think about what's coming if Dallas gets past the first round. Beaubois has not become the game-changer we had all counted on and, well, I'm sorry, but the basketball gods just played dirty when they took out Caron. For the record, he's not coming back. Not for this series and probably not until a new season starts (God knows when that'll be). None of those things are an issue of fault, really. Nobody chose to have Rodrigue break his foot twice or to have Caron pop a kneecap. But the net effect is Rodrigue is a year behind where we'd all thought he'd be and Caron . . . you don't not miss 16 and 4 and defensive ornereyness. With Coach's reliance on known qualities -- Fish calls it the Devean George effect, in that coaches prefer predictability in their roleplayers -- I don't think Corey Brewer's earned enough of his trust to crack the rotation, and DeShawn regression to the mean has been devestating. The Jasons have had a bad habit of disappearing in the playoffs and JJ's too easy to stop.

From Dirk, nothing is to be feared. At this point, the only things that might break his focus is a death in the family, God forbid, or a broken leg. Tyson is our king card -- the chance we have in this series is in how well Tyson can keep LaMarcus Aldridge bottled up, and if whatever's wrong with Jason Kidd's passing was just due to fatigue and a solid week off's fixed it.

Operating on the assumption that homecourt advantage will matter in this series, I think Dallas simply out-skills Portland. Mavericks in seven.
-BJ

Bizzaro World

2011-02-07T15:32:00.000-06:00

Anybody who thought San Antonio would be kicking the almighty shit out of everybody raise your hands.

Liars. Put them down again.

The Mavericks are in second place in the conference, 35-15, seven games behind the Spurs and half a game on top of the Lakers. Insert inevitable pooh-pooh'ing of part-time fans who only pay attention to Dallas when required by contract to do so. (If I were of a cynical nature -- and I am -- I'd ask some of these nice men how much money they lost over the Golden State Faceplant in 2007.) Basketbawful -- whose opinion I respect and trust, really -- was caught sniping a few weeks ago about how Dallas was due for a reality check because we had a bunch of games at home early in the season.

Hey, reality check:

- Dallas has been good at home, but not dominant. Personally, I think it's because Humble Billy Hayes isn't in the house anymore. Maybe Stuttering Craig could come in for few games, see how that works . . .
- If looked at in terms of win-loss record, Dallas had the hardest schedule of any team in the league in the first half of the season. Including road wins in San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Miami (after the Heat pulled their thumbs out their butts), Orlando, and Utah.
- We've lost Caron Butler to a patella rupture (out for the season) and haven't gotten Beaubois back yet (broken bone in his foot).
- For nine whole games, we got a free preview of the post-Dirk era; Nowitzki went down with a sprained knee and took another half a dozen games to get back to his normal state of Ubermanliness. Want a case for MVP? Point to those games.

Homerism aside, I think it's got to be now. Worst-case scenario; the league shuts down completely next year. No 2011-2012 season. For 2012-2013, Dirk's 34 and in God knows what shape (there've been noises about him spending the year in the Euroleagues if the lockout goes the full tour). Jason Kidd's done, Jason Terry's probably done, Christ knows what shape the franchise'll be in financially.

So where does that leave us today?

Be clear here -- if there were a chance to get Carmelo, go for it. There isn't. What else is there? Not a lot. Oy vey.
-BJ

Structural Damage

2010-12-16T22:49:00.001-06:00

I'll get to the first third or so of the season for the Mavericks in a day or so -- hey, I'm juggling obsession with a full-time job that doesn't allow me an Internet connection. Today I want to share some deep thoughts.

Brandon Roy, the alpha of the Portland Trailblazers, has decided to ignore minutes restrictions designed to limit pain and damage to an injured knee. What happened was last year during the playoffs he suffered a bone bruise and a meniscus tear. Instead of calling it quits he came back after eight days and played out the Blazers postseason. If I'm understanding what I'm hearing correctly, the damage never healed right and now Roy suffers chronic pain.

I read a column that calls Roy's decision to keep playing even though his knee's not right "heroic." Heroic my ass. It's cut a hole in his strength. Without confidence in his body, he's a shadow of himself. If his knee never heals -- and if he keeps playing it might not -- it'll only get worse.

And that's not the most insidious part. Chronic pain changes you. Poison builds up in your spirit, and sooner or later you start spreading it around. You can't help it, but that doesn't help the other people in the situation. Brandon Roy, who a few years ago was hailed as one of the league's finest keystone guys, is at that point. He's saying even when he's good the team's not consistant enough to win games, talking shit about his backcourt partner Andre Miller, muttering things about spacing and being a go-to guy . . .

Metaphor time. There's a guy and he smokes. He's been doing it for years. He coughs a lot, but doesn't everybody this time of year/hasn't the flu been making the rounds/didn't the environmental guys just get done dusting out the air vents? And then one day, he starts coughing, and he tastes blood.

The Blazers are that guy and Brandon Roy is the ciagrettes. Malignancies are slowly growing in the corners of the locker room. The Blazers offense relies on him to play in ways he no longer can and there aren't enough wins to make the pain bearable. He's not being heroic, he's in denial.

I'm all about overcoming physical limitations. Shit, that's one of the many things I adore about Nowitzki. But I'm also in favor of long-term rewards. Playing through pain is fine, but not if you're jeopardizing yourself long-term. By trying to play through the pain, Brandon Roy is making a bad choice. The Blazers are not going to advance in the postseason with him playing as a hesitant, crippled crab version of himself, and sooner or later his body will pay him back with an injury he can't play through.

Mr. Roy, Coach McMillan, Trailblazers organization . . . please. Accept reality. Brandon Roy cannot be your guy this year. Deactivate him, deliver him into the hands of the best physical therapists you can find, and if you're praying folk, pray.
-BJ

A Glance Behind The Curtain

2010-11-21T13:42:00.004-06:00

Hey guys. Better late than never -- here's what went down when I got to go backstage at the Van Andel Arena.

A Glance Behind The Curtain, or My Night at the Meijer Basketball Classic
-BJ

Babbling Incoherently

2010-09-26T23:50:00.000-05:00

I really don't know why, other than Mark Cuban is the greatest owner in professional sports and the Mavericks organization rules and my mommy can beat the shit out of your mommy--

Ahem. Beginning at the beginning. I'll try and make it brief.

Last year the Mavs played the Pistons in the preseason, but the game itself was held at the Van Andel Arena in downtown Grand Rapids, Michigan (it's on the other side of the state from Detroit). I was bummed when I found out about it, because my mother and I went to visit the kinfolk that same week and if we'd known we might've been able to go.

When the preseason schedule was released some weeks ago, I saw that on October 13th my Mavs would be making another field trip to West Michigan. Ba duh bing! plans are made to stay with The Aunt'n'Uncle, my younger sister gets some time off, and for the first time I get to inflict my obsession on my nearest and dearest.

Good deal, neh? But my mother had an even eviler plan. She asked around, got some advice, and wrote an e-mail to Mr. Cuban. Basically, she explained the vacation, the family, the blog, the ongoing sacrifice of dignity. And The Man gave the order and now there's a pass gonna be waiting for me at Will Call at the Van Andel!

I'm terrified. I'm excited. I'm terrified. I'm delighted. I'm terrified. My brain's throwing together a piece I can pitch to DB.com, or to mavs.com, or just post here for my two or three loyal readers. I don't know! Eeeek! Press pass! Does that mean hanging around . . . people? I'm horrible at that! I'll screw it up! I'll blurt out awkward non sequitors about body proportions! I'll hallucinate overhearing a fat joke from a bad source! My contacts'll explode! My pants will catch fire! The arena will cave in! An early ice storm will trap everybody in town for a week! We'll all be buried in lake-effect snow and have to kill and eat Ben Wallace! AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

(breath)

Sorry.
-BJ

The Obligatory Bron-Bron Post

2010-08-22T17:39:00.004-05:00

It's time for an award!

Potholer54 has the Golden Crocoduck (look it up on YouTube). Top Gear has the Golden Cock (as in rooster, filthbrains). We here at B3 have . . . the Platinum Douchebag!

Yes! This charming reproduction of That Thing In Your Grandma's Closet is for the winner of the Basketball for Beginners Lifetime Achievement Award. This prestigious award is given to the person who's done the most to ruin the lives of the NBA's millions of fans all over the world.

And the nominees are . . .

Yes, I'm laughing at you.
LeBron James -- for rewarding the Cleveland Cavalier fanbase for their years of wholehearted support and love by going on live television, disembowling their hopes and dreams, and dumping rocksalt into the protruding-viscera wounds.

My heart won't fit on my sleeve. Go figure.
LeBron James -- for extending the trail paved by Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and Dewayne Wade; taking the marketing of basketball farther away from its identity as a team sport and proving once again it's all about The Guy and not those fourteen other idiots wearing the same colors.

These are my Grownup clothes.
And finally, LeBron James -- for not parking his enormous ego in Dallas, which could've offered him a bigger payday and a chance to work with the least drama-queen-esque superstar in professional sports.

Beej--
Okay, that last bit was the homer talking.

And the winner is . . .

LeBron James!!!

All these reasons are valid, but above everything else . . . what he's done is show the world -- the casual fan, the dedicated fan, the players, the league -- that the NBAs top tier of talent, the ones that make the business go, are a pack of immature idiots and are to be dealt with on that basis. The Miami Heat might or might not win a title during the Moron Triplets' tenure, but there will be a lockout next year. I don't trust this man, his representatives, the other business guys, or the players who look up to him as a model of self-promotion, to arrive at an equitable salary arrangement.

In that same hand . . . comparisons have been made between the 2010 Heat and the Jordan-era Bulls. With one crucial difference; as much as Phil Jackson comes off as slime, he's one of the best ego-wranglers in the league. Does Erik Spoelstra have the mad skills necessary to keep three huge talents with egos to match pulling in harness together? Survey says Fuck No.

So James has got to hope he can win the championship this year. He'll need that bit of shine as comfort and consolation as we all suffer through the lockout we know is coming.

Congratulations, LeBron James. You . . . are the Platinum Douchebag.

Damn it feels good to be a douchebag.

-BJ

PS: This post was lovingly ripped off from the 2007 Top Gear Awards. Give it a watch.

Presenting the Dallas Mavericks' Game Schedule, 2010-2011

2010-08-10T16:20:00.000-05:00

It's here! It's here! The roadmap of my evenings and weekends until sometime in April!

Raw schedule here, Our Man Mark Followill's takes here.

My thoughts?

- Well at least they're getting it over with early; The Dope Show that is the Miami Heat is in town on Saturday, November 27th, tipoff at 7:30 Central. Given that it'll be early in the season (I'm giving Miami until Valentine's Day until the techtonic egos destabilize the team to the point of causing earthquakes) and given that the Mavs will be playing the last game of a four-outta-five, I think we're gonna get shellacked. But hell, I thought that about the Cleveland home game when Dirk had to sit out with a bite on his shooting arm.

- For us deranged folk, December's a busy month. There's a six game homestand starting on the seventh. I'm gonna have blue stuck in my pores all through Christmas.

- Cut a break over the holidays though -- there's an Away at Orlando on the 21st, then off until another roadie at Oklahoma City on the 27th. The family guys should appreciate that.

- According to Followill, we get the Eastern Conference token matchups over with in the middle of March. The schedule also gets rather road-heavy and features teams with whom we're going to be fighting for playoff seeding. Should be fun.

- We get the Thunder three times this season. Two roadies. There is a matchup I fear. They're not babies anymore, and they're hungry. And right now I like Kevin Durant more than just about anybody in terms of a league star. I think this year the postseason threshold in the West is going to stay high, and the Thunder will be the reason why. Portland -- who the hell knows? the Jazz are a constant; LA's a bitch; the Suns have to find a way to cope with life after Stoudemire; San Antonio's a year older; the Mavs are a year older; and in Houston much depends on whether or not Yao Ming plays next year.

Dust off the VCR, locate the paints, get new brushes, and get to work on those incidentals -- basketball is on the way.
-BJ

Prioritizing, or It Helps To Know When To Hide The Remote

2010-08-10T13:42:00.000-05:00

Schedule Day! Schedule Day! Since the Mavs have been downchecked back to Expansion Team -- no above the marquee games for us this year, screw you Chancellor Stern -- we've had to wait for official release-of-schedule to find out what the hell we're all gonna be doing the next eight or nine months.

It's now about twenty to two Dallas time and we've got our first glance from -- who else? -- Dallasbasketball.com:

*Mavs vs. Charlotte Bobcats 10/27/2010 7:30 PM is the opener, at home
*Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis 10/29/2010 7:30 PM
*Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver 11/6/2010 8:00 PM
*Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics 11/8/2010 7:30 PM in Dallas
*Dallas Mavericks vs. Philadelphia 76ers 11/12/2010 7:30 PM
*Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Hornets 11/15/2010 7:30 PM
*Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls 11/19/2010 8:30 PM
*Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons 11/23/2010 7:30 PM
*Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat 11/27/2010 7:30 PM in Dallas
*The Lakers play at Dallas January 19, 2011

More stuff later, once our guys have had a chance to chew the data.
-BJ

Looooong Hiatus

2010-08-03T10:01:00.000-05:00

Hello fellow interdweebs.

Hey, who put all this ragweed in my lawn? Dandilions I can live with -- they're cheery. But this requires some heavy duty plant murder.

What I'm trying to say using clumsy metaphor is I've been away. The job I was busting my ass over wound up not panning out (the very nice raise never materialized, the promise of more work was an empty one, and the staffing guys lied when they said they had other clients interested). Shortly, I'm unemployed again. There've been other issues going on, but nothing that needs to be detailed here.

When we last left our heros they were getting bounced out of the first round by the (insert swear words of choice) Spurs. The usual fingers got pointed, the usual excuses were made, the fellows ate -- or in some cases got force-fed -- their usual ration of crow. Lakers versus Celtics in the Finals and the forces of evil triumphed yet again. Vomit.

And that's pretty much where we come in. More posts later; I haven't forgotten about my loyal readers (all three of them). Time to re-embrace my obsession.
-BJ

The Reason We Live -- Round One, after Game 3

2010-04-25T11:02:00.000-05:00

Astronomers call the line between night and day the terminator. The Mavericks know that line. We're riding it now.

After a nice display of exterminate, annihilate, destroy in Game 1 -- and kindly don't bore me with your moans of exasperation regarding the "free throw disperity," David Lord did some subtraction (factoring out the on purpose crap on Dampier) and the "disperity" is more like two -- the Mavs have dropped two, surrendered home court advantage, and awarded hope to the Spurs and their fanbase after they went a season of doing without.

The finger points in two different directions. One points at the refs -- Dan Crawford, who led the officiating teams in Games 2 and 3, has a suspicious habit of whistle-swallowing. He's called seventeen counting those two, and the Mavericks have won once. That stretches the concept of coincidence.

The other finger points at Coach. In Game 3 the Mavericks went with the 3-Guard lineup and finally got some offense going. We'd taken the lead--

--and gave it right back up again. Here's the Mavericks' offensive production, beginning at 7:32 with a Nowitzki made basket:

Nowitzki jump shot, made
Nowitzki fadeaway jumper, missed
Terry 3pt shot, missed
Kidd 3pt shot, missed
Barea jump shot, missed
Terry jump shot, missed
Terry jump shot, missed
Kidd free throws, 2-2
Nowitzki free throws, 2-2
Nowitzki jump shot, made
Kidd 3pt shot, missed
Barea driving jump shot, missed
Terry jump shot, missed (McDyess block)
Nowitzki jump shot, missed
Terry 3pt shot, made
Barea jump shot, made
Beaubois layup, made
Barea layup, missed
Haywood tip-in, made

The three guards had played almost the entire second half at that point. Dirk was the only player who got to sit for a couple of minutes. David Lord, "On possession after possession, the Mavs were so dead that one afther another they would pass up wide open looks, knowing they didn't have the freshness to take a decent shot." There goes early offense, which is meat and drink for this team.

Notably absent from that list are Butler and Marion. I accept and appreciate Coach's right to bench players he feels are not contributing. But isn't that the whole reason those men are here? At the very least to hold the line whilst the knights get fresh horses, change into spare armor, get some new lances? Coach decided the cost of giving them minutes was more of a risk than he could afford. Why? What does he know about these men that we don't?

The men themselves -- Marion, Butler and Haywood -- are not happy with what's been going on, and are -- in the politest possible way -- making that clear. Most of the answers to questions regarding minutes boiled down to "talk to the jerk with the clipboard." The word around the campfire this morning is the players held a meeting before practise to hash out a few things.

Whatever the problem, it needs fixing. Now. The Mavericks need those men if they plan to do anything this summer besides roast weenies. As nice as roast weenies are, they can wait until July.
-BJ

The Reason We Live, Round One -- Before Game 1

2010-04-18T12:13:00.000-05:00

Wow! Haven't done this in a while. Sorry guys; with nailing down a new day job and trying to reorganize my life, I've been hellacious busy.

So it's the Mavericks versus the Spurs in Round One. Again.

Who's favored depends on who you talk to. The usual suspects in the Dallas sporting media machine are optimistic about the Mavs' chances -- the consensus seems to be Mavs in six or seven. On the national stage, things are a mite murkier. In spite of being the higher seed, in spite of Tim Duncan simply not being the player he once was, in spite of Tony Parker's newly healed hand-- the series has more buts than an ashtray at a bowling alley.

Me?

The logical part -- the one that doesn't howl every year that the Mavericks are clearly the greatest basketball machine in the history of eternity -- is apprehensive. True, the Mavericks have upgraded significantly, but this is San Antonio. Both teams have gone through prolonged periods of waiting for their real lives to begin this year and both have lost games because of it. Because San Antonio has titles, because they're coached by one of the best, and because Tim Duncan still has a pulse, they're getting more of the benefit of the doubt. A lot of the folk outside the region simply do not believe the Mavericks are as good as their record.

I'll buy that as a line of reasoning.

I just don't see it unfolding that way. The Spurs have Ginobli back and that's not a small thing. Their rookie's decent, which will help if Parker has to have his minutes managed (in a way, having to sit out a few weeks was probably a good thing, because he was also dealing with plantar fasciitis and only time heals that). The Mavericks, to a certain degree, have to contain them both. San Antonio really doesn't have one guy they can stick on Dirk and last year he made them pay for double-teaming. It'd be intriguing to see if Coach puts in Rodrigue but JJ's been here before and performed brilliantly.

Neither team is really scared of the other and they both think they can go deep in the postseason if opportunity presents. Nobody has a reason to do anything other than bring it each and every second. I think as a series it's going to be a lot like the game at the AAC back in November. Prepare to have your heart torn out and pray to your god the Mavs can pick it up and put it back again. Mavs in seven.
-BJ

Worth It All

2010-03-30T23:03:00.000-05:00

The lost glasses -- currently on the old pair and have a nice tension headache -- the sore feet -- stuck in standing room only -- and the lost voice.

Technically, the Mavs clinched a playoff spot on Monday night as Memphis officially slid under the waves. But that wasn't what it felt like. Much depended on last night. The second seed. The chance of someone else taking care of the Lakers (please please let Portland get the eighth seed!). Getting some pride back after getting owned when the Mavs hit Denver last. Writing a new page after getting knocked out of the playoffs. The tiebreaker, just in case.

I was terrified. In an eighty-two game season, there are exclaimation points. The home game against Boston and the game in Portland were two of the most recent, and the Mavericks dropped them both for bad reasons. Surely not this night. But suppose . . . suppose . . .

It is my delighted pleasure to report that the Mavericks did not let that happen. Play down to an opponent missing their best defender and their head coach, playing their second night of a back-to-back? Nope. Let Carmelo do what he does? Nada. Let Chauncey put the team on his back? Niente. Let themselves get outphysicaled by a team whose defensive raison d'etre is to beat you up without seeming to? Nein. Let the bad/lack of calls mess with their heads? Hell no!

Pick your cliche -- the Mavs stepped on their necks, broke their backs, sent them home to their mommies, beat them up and stole their lunch money, reduced them to piles of bones and shredded blue cloth, nuked them back to the Dark Ages. It all boils down to a sixteen point win, in fine style. In amongst that, we get fine play from the bigs, a freed Roddy B, Jet shifting into overdrive in the fourth, and oh yeah, that Dirk guy -- TRIPLE DOUBLE!!!

I'm tempted to call it a throwback game -- since when does Dirk take more than one or two threes per game anymore? -- except it's not. MVP? Try Hall of Fame.

Props must also go to Shawn Marion and Caron Butler, who held Carmelo Anthony eighteen points (!!!) below his season average. It's easy to harbor a little bit of resentment towards Shawn, because his shot just looks so bloody awkward; you expect it to miss and overlook when it hits. But opponent megastars tend to have bad nights against Dallas, and Marion's the reason why.

So after last night, we're in second place (with Utah breathing down our necks, that's a problem) and in case of Dallas and Denver finishing neck-and-neck, we got the tiebreaker. That's something; it is, in fact, a great deal.

Denver Nuggets, this song's for you:

-BJ

Uh-Oh

2010-03-28T11:26:00.000-05:00

There are a lot of possible storylines that could grow out of a matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors -- the Great Meltdown of 2007, the Warriors' steep downward trajectory from those days, the game earlier when the Mavs outnumbered the Warriors two to one and still lost, the Organization and fanbase's strange and enduring fascination with Golden State coach Don Nelson . . .

And, with 3:18 left in the first, every single one of them was rendered irrelevant.

Choosing to go small after Haywood jammed a finger, Coach put in Rodrigue. And Rodrigue--

I saw it and I still don't believe it.

40 points, 15-of-22 including 9-of-11 on 3’s, eight rebounds, three assists, and three blocked shots.

Coach is going to have some hard explaining to do if we don't see Roddy B on the floor in every game we have left. And I don't mean garbage time either. Jet's face is still puzzling itself together; there really isn't any reason for JJ to spell Jet as a shooting guard. Particularly in light of . . . well you know he . . .

(giggle)
-BJ

Gotta Give Portland's Defense Credit?

2010-03-26T00:12:00.000-05:00

Bullshit I do.

We're down ~~eightten~~thirteen, and we're going to lose this game.

I'm not being a pessimist. The time hasn't run out yet. Something could happen.

A hard thing to learn -- miracles are treasured because they are rare. It will take one -- a small one, but even so -- to win this game. All the Mavericks are doing right now is treading water. My guys have solved many teams so far this year, picked many locks, battered down many gates, stormed and conquered, crushed our enemies and left their women and children sobbing over what's left. We have not solved Portland.

Doesn't help the refs are wearing their Mavericks colored glasses. That T against Caron was bogus.

In my layperson's opinion, the Mavs fell back in love with the jump shot, the panic threes are not falling, we're over-relying on Dirk when it's clear he's having an off night, Dampier's malfunction needs to get fixed right fucking NOW, and why did Coach not put Rodrigue in when it was clear JJ was in over his head (literally).

Fuck it. I'll squeeze what I can for the quoteboard and hit the hay.

I will admit my hopes for this team are not as high as they once were.
-BJ

Kicking Out The Mirror

2010-03-24T21:12:00.000-05:00

Ever seen the second Conan movie? The one where Wilt Chamberlain rocks the leathers? If you haven't-- seriously, what kind of pop culture junkie are you anyway? Go rent them both immediately. Watch the first one because it's a good movie in spite of itself, and the second one so you'll get what I'm about to discuss.

About halfway through the movie, Conan is trapped in a room lined with mirrored panels and attacked by a scaly lizardman monster. The SLmM is invulnerable, stronger than he is, and has big claws and sharp cruel fangs. After finding out the invulnerable part, Conan accidentaly breaks one of the mirrors. A long ugly gash appears on the SLmM's chest and it howls in pain. If this were a comic, Conan would have a '!' in the balloon over his head as he shatters another mirror with his sword and the SLmM is injured again.

Since the hero can't get let off that easy -- and really, who could ever get enough of Basil Poledouris's score? -- the SLmM gets under Conan's guard, picks him up, and drapes him over the SLmM's back, with Conan dropping his sword in the process. Conan manages to wiggle into position, draws back his feet, and slams them into the nearest mirror. The SLmM shrieks and drops Conan, the music shifts into The Hero Is Kicking Epic Monster Ass mode, Conan picks up his sword and thus begins an extended montage of Conan slo-mo'ing his sword into mirrors intercut with shots of the SLmM howling in agony at each new wound. Since Conan is the Hero of this picture (and we all know what happens to the villian), he prevails and the story moves on.

Flash back, if you will, to last night. Almost four minutes gone in the third, the Mavericks are in the process of surrendering yet another lead after playing quite prettily in the first half, and . . .

In terms of What're The Odds, it's on a par with snow in Miami. Former Maverick Drew Gooden pushed Dirk in the back. No whistle. Surprised at the lack of call Dirk went up to contest Gooden's shot and got him on the arm. Whistle. Foul on #41.

Dirk: "Bill that's a two-hand push!!!"
Blind and Possibly Brain Damaged Ref: "Bam! Right there!" (throws the T)

I don't know what Dirk said next -- the Painted Fan section's not quite that good. Either the BaPBDR was having a bad night, or Dirk said something reeeeaaaalllly objectionable. Second T and the BaPBDR made the universal ref gesture of Get The Fuck Off My Floor! Led by a blazer and bracketed by cops, Dirk marched to the locker room.

Thus began the total erasure of the lead and the Clippers going up by four. Anyone else want to argue about how crucial Dirk is to the Mavericks?

And then came the kick. Jason Kidd, who turned 37 yesterday, threw a lob pass and Rodrigue Beaubois leapt. He's about six-three; how the hell did he clear the basket by three feet? Catch, bam. Commence screaming. The Mavs went on to win it by ten.

So that would be kicking out the mirror. Not the turning point -- that would've been the trade -- but the part where the turn becomes impossible to ignore and impossible to stop. Scaly Lizardman Monster's going down.

So, is this it? They proved it against Los Angeles, against the Magic, ad infinitum against teams that don't matter. There's the sword, and in a pinch we can manage without. All we need is the will.

Guys?
-BJ

These Are The Celtics. They Are The Ruiners Of My Day.

2010-03-21T11:52:00.001-05:00

Sensed it coming.

The visit from the Boston Celtics back in '08 was the second live game I attended. First of all, it was bright and sunny but viciously cold. Second, I got hung up at work. Third, I missed the bus and had to wait 45 minutes for another one (at the time I worked out at the butt-end of Irving, clear the hell to fuck and gone by DFW Airport). By the time I got to the arena, the first quarter was over. The Mavs losing 94-90 was the rancid pickle on a shit sandwich of a day. PS: I hate pickles.

Yesterday followed a similar pattern -- no measureable impact on the Daily Chore List (the Mavs Fan Shop doesn't carry sweatshirts/hoodies/jackets in sizes larger than 2X, the cell phone I want is out of stock everywhere), a communication breakdown between me and my ride, a Painted Fan section full of Painted Fan virgins (yes I know it sucks that half the section is standing room only, it wasn't my idea) and the Mavericks doing the resident Celtics fans a favor by getting a lot of it wrong at the worst possible time.

To be fair, this wasn't as bad as last year's Boston at Dallas -- the one where we blew a 20+ lead and Coach asked Dirk to be Jesus. But it was bad enough.

Being surrounded by Painted People when the game looks like a winner, when you've been genuinely thrilled, when things are going well, is a joy. And then it all went wrong. My brain, still happily drunk on dopamine and other THIS ROCKS! brain drugs, watched in horror as a seven point lead evaporated, as everything Boston threw up went down and through, as the panic shots missed, as every attempt at an offense led to Bad Things.

I'm not in the habit of second-guessing Coach, not really. But Rajon Rondo is exactly the kind of point guard the Mavericks have problems with, because he can think and move very very quickly. My specific second guess has to do with not putting Rodrigue in the game sometime in the first half whilst Rondo was in for Boston and seeing if that matchup was workable. And if it had been, serving Roddy some fourth-quarter minutes at the two or the point.

In any event, the Mavericks have dropped two of their last three making a lot of the same mistakes. I went outside in a bad state and stood there forever waiting for my ride. Wearing a T-shirt and a wrap. In twenty degrees.

Dear Mavericks et al; if I get pneumonia and die, it's you guys's fault.
-BJ

Murphy's Law, Squared

2010-03-14T11:16:00.000-05:00

To wit, if it can go wrong, it will make a specific point of going wrong, simply to ruin your day.

So a moment of silence, please, for the longest winning streak since the storied 2006-2007 season.

. . .

The Knicks shoved it in and broke it off, guys. There is not one thing that went right for the Mavericks last night. Not one thing. Inside shots? Nope. Free throws? An uncharacteristic (and migraine triggering) 19-26. Outside scoring? 7-21 on three point shots. Sharing the ball well? 14 assists. Interior defense? New York got 46 points in the paint? Perimeter defense? The Underpants got 16-30 from beyond the periphery; way beyond in several cases. Rebounds? Enough! Uncle! Mustard! Safeword! Cut it out, can't'cha?

So, last night, New York got some of their own back and Denver skipped over us in the standings. And I am going back to bed.

Shawn; "Throw it out the window." Coach; "Tonight was ugly."

And Dirk; "Screw the streak."

Word, man.
-BJ

I'm Sorry, I'm Confused

2010-03-12T19:19:00.003-06:00

Thank God nobody takes me seriously.

Okay, I'll admit it. I was happy to forget statistics after studying it as part of Algebra II back in high school. Seeing John Hollinger's name come up as a subject of derision more than once over at Dallasbasketball.com inclined me not to trust his methods, and the latest rankings (the Mavericks have actually slid down to 13) just seemed silly.

Then I read Rob Mahoney's post saying very clearly what brand of salt Hollinger's opinion should be taken with. Not evil, just overly objective (athletes are not just and only stat machines). So I deferred to Mr. Mahoney's opinion, because he knows more about the sport and the advanced stats used in defining it. I posted an apology and all was well.

Then this evening when I got home, this hit me in the face like a rolled-up sweat sock.

So how seriously am I supposed to take a numbers guy who comes up with imaginary matchups, cites factors used in making his decisions that he specifically ignores in his calculations (the Bucks trade for Salmons was better than the Mavericks trade for Butler/Haywood/Stevenson?), and glosses it over with things like, "[T]he only reason the Magic lost is because, 'Orlando also shot 4-for-25 on 3s in that game -- an event unlikely to repeat itself in future meetings.'"

Uh-huh. We're back in "bad science" territory.

And then over on the boards . . .

I'm including the full post because it bears reading. It's also gotten the Good King Of Numbers stamp of approval:

"But, here's the thing...I'm not even sure Hollinger knows what true 'statistics' are. I understand that baseball 'stats' are relatively simple 'hits/at bats = BA', but Hollinger goes by this 'Advanced Level Stat' creed, so he should be held to higher standards. I'm speaking specifically of his power rankings system...I haven't looked the intricacies to his PER calc (maybe they're good). His formula 1)doesn't use ANY statistical method to evaluate the numbers, and 2) (speaking as a financial analyst who scrutinizes formulas all the time) is completely arbitrary.

"Here's the formula RATING = (((SOS-0.5)/0.037)*0.67) + (((SOSL10-0.5)/0.037)*0.33) + 100 + (0.67*(MARG+(((ROAD-HOME)*3.5)/(GAMES))) + (0.33*(MARGL10+(((ROAD10-HOME10)*3.5)/(10)))))

the first part is a strength of schedule calc, and the second bracket is the strength of schedule in the last 10 games. You'll notice he's multiplying the first one by 2/3 and the last 10 games by 1/3, which just means that's he 'weighting' the significance of these numbers, and then adding them together. Well....how did he come up with 2/3 and 1/3? That's totally arbitrary...it can be adjusted at his whim. If he had solid STATISTICAL evidence proving that weight, then that would mean something. But the fact that he's using such simple fractions is a clear indicator that he pulled them out of his ass. Same thing with the Margin of victory portion of the calculation. A REAL statistical model (and, mind you, I'm not expert...I will have my MBA in a few months and I've been exposed to lots of stats methods, but I don't claim to be any good at them) would look for SIGNIFICANCE in the numbers that he is coming up with. That is what statistics is all about...what are the MEANINGS of these numbers. Are they reliable? How volatile are these variables? Well, the fact that the Mavericks are being popped out as #13 in his rankings should send a red flag to John that his 'model' is off. It's not reliable. But, instead of looking for ways to improve it (which would be welcomed by anyone I would think) he tries to defend it (with shocking arrogance, I might add) and paints himself into an even smaller corner than he was before.

"He's not a 'statistics' guy in a real sense. He comes up with sports 'statistics', but tries to pass them off as something more than they really are. A person better at stats than I should take all of his final regular season power rankings from the past few years, and run regression analyses against actual finishes as well as head-to-head matches during the season. The answer to 'how reliable are these rankings' is in there...it's just math. But, as I sit here and look at this formula more, I want to laugh at how simplistically stupid it really is. Yes, it will rank teams semi-appropriately, but he acts like it can quantify those 'hidden' variables in teams. It's a joke."
-duxthaman
http://dallasbasketballdotcom.yuku.com/topic/40338

Is there a peer review process for sports statisticians? And if there isn't, could one be created? It's one thing for a guy like Hollinger -- who's really for entertainment purposes only -- to cover the weaknesses in his system by massaging numbers and flashing number-scaled red herrings. It's quite another if the stats guys in front offices do so. If you believe him, Avery Johnson swears he went SmallBall against Golden State in 2007 because he followed the advice of the Mavericks' statistician who told him it would be advantageous to do so.
-BJ

But They're Good For You

2010-03-11T18:02:00.001-06:00

A few days ago, in a fit of righteous homer indignation, I posted what I thought was a nice little flaming of John Hollinger and his Amazing Basketball Calculator.

Then I read a few thoughts from Rob Mahoney on the subject. And should I ever meet Mr. Hollinger, I owe him an apology.

Of course he's not taking into account how much better the Mavs could get. That's not his mission and he says so up front. Hard numbers are his game and by those numbers -- pure production and nothing else -- his opinion is valid. I chose to overlook that, and that was incorrect.

Do I think his opinion of the Mavs is unfairly low? I can't answer that; I've never met the man. I also need to bear in mind the ultimate standard everyone is measuring against; defeating the LA Lakers in a playoff series. And in spite of some recent reality checks, LA is still the team to beat in the West.

So, Mr. Hollinger, I'm sorry. Calling your work "bad science" was inaccurate, unfair, and really rather mean. And as to your assertion the Mavericks can't beat LA . . . we'll see. I'll tell you one thing; the Lakers better bring their lunches.
-BJ

SQUEE!

2010-03-10T23:14:00.000-06:00

I am such a girl.

1. Whenever I pass a pasture, I point and squeal, "Horsies!"

2. If I win the hundred million dollars I intend to fly back to Grand Rapids, walk into Herkner Jewelers (best damn sparkly stuff outlet in West Michigan), and buy it.

3. The reaction to seeing this on DallasBasketball.com involves a lot of giggling. There might've been high-pitched noises.

Doesn't look like any such of a much, just some quote-mining from the 13th straight (more giggling) Mavericks win. But note please, the byline.

:-D

Me and my giggling fit are going to bed now.
-BJ

Crunchy Numbers

2010-03-09T17:56:00.000-06:00

This is a little dated -- this is the NBA, things get old in a hurry -- so bear with me. Last week the Evil Numbers Maestro John Hollinger posted his ultimate prediction of the 2009-2010 Mavericks. Using statistical modeling he takes the raw data for the season and gives his opinion regarding possible postseason success.

His opinion? Boil it down and he considers Dallas a second-tier team at best.

I won't argue any specific point. I'd get shellacked if I did that, because Hollinger is smarter than I am and has a better grasp of statistics.

However.

The bulk of his data -- roughly eighty percent of it -- is flawed. The after-trade Mavericks are a substantially different beast than the before-trade Mavericks. I don't see this version giving up an at-home blowout to the Utah Jazz, do you? And not just production, it's attitude. Granting that the Bobcats lost that game just as much as the Mavericks won it, the Mavs did win with an eighteen hour turnaround time between games and with a starting lineup that had had to play heavy minutes the night before. There would have been disappointment but no real surprise if the Mavs had simply waved the white and crawled back to the plane to get some sleep, and if this was the team still trying to figure out how to get blood out of a stone that might've happened. It didn't.

I also think Hollinger is enough of a statistician to know that. It's hard to imagine he could get a feel for where the v2.0 Mavericks are going with a sample size of only eight games. So in the end, I think he's based his prediction on what he expects to see out of the Mavericks -- an excellent team, but lacking the extraordinary factors that separate excellence from Best In The World -- and backed it up with bad numbers.

Starting an experiment with a theory already formed and ignoring results that don't support your theory . . . it's called bad science. Is there peer review for sports statisticians? Might be a question to pose at Dorkapalooza (Sloan Sports Analytics Conference).
-BJ

BADASS VICTORY THEME!!!

2010-03-08T22:52:00.000-06:00

I thought for sure if there was ever a speed-bump on the way up to the sky, it would be this game. The Timberwolves have played much better than they have any right to against Dallas, and right now we're the walking wounded (again). Jet Terry's out with a cracked eye socket, Dampier's still working on his finger, and Brendan Haywood's been out with a bad back.

Nope. Now as a game it was so stuffed full of 'bawful that I'm expecting McHale to give it its own Worst of the Night entry (title it The Neverending Quarter), but the Mavs got out of it with the win. However, we took casualties. JJ's toe caught the floor and his ankle folded up. He had to leave the game immediately. No word yet on how bad it is.

But-- twelve straight! Two and a half out of first place! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it!

And something else. I was at the watch party up in Lewisville tonight -- Dallasbasketball.com and the Frisco D-League Blue Crew teaming up for funzies. Had to wait forever for a seat, because the place was packed and my happy fat ass doesn't fit in their booths. Mike Fisher saw me waiting and kindly invited me to shoehorn in with his family and friends. Later, he called me over for a conversation. Situation developing, more to come later. If it works out, much yay.
-BJ

PS: Whenever I go to a watch party, I keep looking around and thinking, "I thought you'd be taller." Shrug.

Hitting The Ditch Switch: A Look In Rewind

2010-03-01T21:25:00.000-06:00

I've been trying to write this for over a week now, a deranged layperson's take on the trade that excised another piece of the 2006 Finals team and got us . . . what? So screw it, let's work the chronology backwards:

February 26-March 1, 2010
With some superhuman performances by Dirk and Kidd, the Mavericks manage wins against the Atlanta Hawks, the New Orleans Hornets, and the Charlotte Bobcats. They currently ride the longest win streak in the NBA, and their longest win streak since January 2008.

February 24, 2010
See previous entry for bliss. After two blowouts the Mavericks successfully defend home court and tie the season series.

February 17-22, 2010
After an embarassing loss in Oklaholma City, the new version Mavericks notch four wins in six nights, including an impressive victory over Dwight Howard's Orlando Magic. The team has yet to hold a formal practise session since the trade. As a result, Jason Kidd is playing extended minutes and putting up some of the most impressive work since he was traded to Dallas in 2008.

February 16, 2010
The first game since the All-Star Break and the first since the trade with Washington. Because of the delay involved in player trades -- red tape with the league -- the team has not practised together yet, and it shows as the offense goes totally ice-cold in the second half. Erick Dampier suffers an open dislocation of his middle finger and undergoes surgery to repair it after the game is over. He is out indefinitely; estimates range from four to eight weeks.

February 13, 2010
Washington trades Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson to Dallas in exchange for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, James Singleton and Quinton Ross.

February 9, 2010
The Mavericks go from a win in Oakland to a thoroughly humiliating gang-rape of a 36-point loss in Denver. Seriously. Tears were shed. The Nuggets are allowed to shoot 60% from the floor and outrebound the Mavericks 47-28. The game becomes unwatchable in the second quarter. And then it gets worse.

January 11, 2010
Dallas acquired forward Eduardo Najera from New Jersey for forward Kris Humphries and forward Shawne Williams.

December 31, 2009-February 5, 2010
The new decade is not kind to the Mavericks. In a stretch of nineteen games, the Mavericks are 9-10, including two harsh losses against the first-place Lakers, two blowouts to the Jazz, and some real cry-tears-of-blood to Toronto, Philadelphia, Minnesota . . . The team slips to 4th in the Western Conference standings. Josh Howard bounces in and out of the starting lineup, his numbers drastically down from even last year. It becomes increasingly obvious he is not the player he once was. Jason Terry's numbers are also down by almost three points per game. True bright spots are few and far between for a team with title pretensions.

December 18-27, 2009
On the 19th, a freak collision between Carl Landry and Dirk left Landry less five teeth and Dirk with an interesting gash on his shooting arm. He sits out the next game against the East-leading Cavaliers; confounding all expectations, the Mavs come out of it with a victory. The next week is a mixed bag, as Josh's place in games is constantly tinkered with -- as a two, as a three, as a starter, as a bench guy. On December 27th, the Mavericks face the Denver Nuggets for the first time since the playoffs last year and notch an impressive win (unless one factors in that Chauncy Billups was out with an injury).

October 27-December 16, 2009
After a bit of a gross-out loss to open the season, the 2009-2010 Dallas Mavericks are off to the races, making the best of a demanding schedule. Josh Howard is not officially available until the November 7 game against Toronto and only plays one more game before being deactivated again. The Word is his ankle's still recovering. Shawn Marion is perhaps not as productive offensively as the Mavericks might've hoped, but he's a part of a team defensive machine considered one of the best in the league.

July 9, 2009
Dallas traded guard Jerry Stackhouse and cash considerations to Memphis for guard Greg Buckner; traded forwards Devean George and Antoine Wright to Toronto for forwards Shawn Marion, Kris Humphries, center Nathan Jawai and cash considerations as part of a four-team deal.

Postseason, 2009
The Mavericks, widely considered first round chum, surprise the league by taking San Antonio in five games. However, in the second round the bigger and more athletic Nuggets defeat the Mavericks 4-1, bringing the 2008-2009 campaign to an end. After playing effectively through the San Antonio series and less-effectively but with a lot of grit against the Nuggets, Josh Howard undergoes arthroscopic repair surgery on his injured ankle and wrist.

November 18, 2008
During a game with the Charlotte Bobcats, Josh Howard steps on a foot and twists an ankle. The injury will sideline him for over half the season.

August 2008
Josh Howard is arrested for street racing, speeding, and all the other charges that go along with doing ninety in a forty-five. The street racing charges are dropped later.

Summer, 2008
Someone with a camera phone takes video of Howard muttering, "I don't respect that [the National Anthem]; I'm black." Meanwhile, the Mavericks hire Richard Carlisle to replace Avery Johnson as head coach.

Postseason, 2008
After Game 4 of the first round series with the New Orleans Hornets, Josh Howard attends a late night birthday party, in direct defiance of Coach Avery Johnson's expressed wishes. The coach cancels practise the next day; the team holds a players-only session without him. The Mavericks are eliminated in the next game. Avery Johnson is relieved of his duties two days later.

February 19, 2008
Dallas signs Keith Van Horn and trades Van Horn, Devin Harris, Trenton Hassell, Maurice Ager, DeSagana Diop, first-round draft choices in 2008 and 2010, and cash considerations to New Jersey for Jason Kidd, Malik Allen and Antoine Wright; waives Nick Fazekas.

Why have I done it this way?

I think after Devin Harris was traded, Josh gave up emotionally on the Mavericks. There was a lot of talk at the time at how he and Jason Kidd were having trouble with working together on the court (by contrast, Kidd and Nowitzki clicked almost immediately). Josh also had to deal with a couple of deaths in the family at the time. His behavior in the New Orleans series and during the offseason was considered eccentric at best, earmarks of serious psychological problems at worst. People questioned his reliability as a player, whether or not he would lay it all on the line to make his team do as well as possible. I was one of them.

To be totally fair to Josh, I think he tried all through last year to make it work. I wonder if things would've shaken out differently if he hadn't gotten hurt . . . but he did. It's like a couple trying to reconnect after someone goes through a life-changing event. Sometimes you can fall in love again, and sometimes you can't. At best, he needed a new place to try and get his production going -- his contract has a team option at the end of this year. At worst, he was poison on a team that thrives best when the locker room is an upbeat place.

So when Washington dropped an anvil on their team in the wake of Arenas's Stupid Gun Tricks, the Mavericks were there with Josh's contract and a few trade chits.

I thought I'd miss Josh . . . until I saw his reaction to rumors that he might've missed a game in January due to the brown-bottle flu. Went from muttering about not responding to lies to muttering about hearing from his lawyer. Bullshit detector goes off, and there goes missing Josh. I'm glad my team won't have to deal with him for a while. That said, I was sorry to hear he went down with a torn ACL week before last. I hope he heals well and is able to get another contract.

Quinton Ross I never really got to know. Drew Gooden was traded to the Clippers and is doing all right. I wish the Clips would've waived him; that would've given Dallas a chance to get him back with a new contract and we need all the depth we can get at the 4 and 5. I was also really impressed with how he played while in Dallas and he seemed like a good guy. Singleton . . . I think he's an interesting guy and I respect him a lot, but, let's face it, the best the Mavericks could give him was eleventh man or so.

That's what we've lost. A locker room toothache, and three guys we like. What did we gain? I'll get into that later.
-BJ

Never Mind The Bollocks, Here Come The Mavericks

2010-02-25T17:40:00.001-06:00

Coach Carlisle, whose job it is to nitpick, prod to new heights, and keep expectations reasonable, is saying the correct things about last night's 101-96 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. It's just the one game, it's not that big of a deal, no yardsticks please-- you know what he is? He's Crash Davis barking criticism at Nuke LaLoosh while he's halfway through a career night. Exasperated, Nuke asks, "Can't you just let me enjoy the moment?" Without looking up from his shoelaces, Crash snaps, "The moment's over."

So let me break it down this way:

Reasons This Game Is Important: A Strictly Business Perspective
- Winning puts us half a game back from Utah in third and just one back of Denver in second. Accepting the Lakers will run away with the West, second or third place means we won't have to deal with them until the conference finals. It also means we'll have home court advantage the first two rounds.
- With the trade (I'll get into it later), Dallas is essentially a new basketball team. Last night's game is the only time the Mavericks v2.0 will meet LA until the postseason. Meaning this is the only opportunity Coach et al will have to gather raw data about matchups, overall team offense/defense, the intangibles about attitude and spirit and player interaction, and so on; information Coach and the players are going to need when it comes to dreaming up plays and overall game plans.

A strictly business basketball mind notes all that, looks at the schedule, and moves on. But I'm not a strictly business basketball mind. So I'm going to look at it from a fan's perspective:

Reasons This Game Is Important: My Perspective
- WE KICKED KOBE'S ASS! WE KICKED KOBE'S ASS! WE KICKED KOBE'S ASS!
- The Lakers are a heavily marketed team and they've got fan support even in enemy territory. The fans they attract, however, are like jackdaws; they're attracted to the aura of showbiz that hangs like a fog over the piss'n'purple. Like motorcycle hobbyists who have their bikes trucked to the rally in Sturgis; fandom as a fashion statement. The last time the Lakers were here, I felt like a Visitor in my own goddamn house!!! It was a joy, a relief, and a just-shy-of-sex pleasure to see and be a part of the Mavs taking home back. You got the banners so you get the respect. But banners don't block shots, and rings don't grab boards. Shut up and get lost, Faker fans.
- I'm fine hanging this one on Kobe. 9-23, two free throws, two assists. Let me put it this way; it's the fourth quarter, his team is down but hanging in there, and he committed a shooting foul on a 90% free throw shooter. Who made the shot anyway.
- E.Honda Face!
- An energy shot to a fanbase in desperate need of one. The vibe just hasn't been as good this year in the arena. Painted Fans is usually me, sometimes two equally deranged ladies, and that's pretty much it. The last time there was a huge turnout for seriously insane people was the last San Antonio game. The Cowboys are hibernating, the Stars are off until the Olympics gets over with, and the Rangers are just starting spring training. The Mavericks are the game in town and they've earned a little faith.
- One of the best regular season games . . . ever. If you were anywhere else doing anything else, you poor deprived person you.
- MavsDancers versus ManiAACS. Rock!
- In the matchup of Captains Clutch, Dirk wins. Isn't that nice?
- Five game win streak. Isn't that nice?
- It's a little much to hope for that a win at home against a team playing the ass end of a back to back will motivate the league's media jerks to take the Mavericks seriously. It is a step in the right direction, and not a baby one either.

My only regret is I didn't get to say it sooner.
-BJ

Asking The Bad Questions

2010-02-06T09:27:00.000-06:00

Transcribing a passage from Kitchen Confidential. I'm including the whole thing because . . . well it's my blog, so why the fuck not?

8. Be prepared to witness every variety of human folly and injustice. Without it screwing up your head or poisoning your attitude. You will simply have to endure the contradictions and inequities of this life [of a professional chef]. "Why does that brain-damaged, lazy-assed busboy take home more money than me, the goddamn sous-chef?" should not be a question that drives you to tears of rage and frustration. It will just be like that sometimes. Accept it.

"Why is he/she treated better than me?"

"How come the chef gets to loiter in the dining room, playing kissy-face with (insert minor celebrity here), while I'm working my ass off?"

"Why is my hard work and dedication not sufficiently appreciated?"

These are all questions best left unasked. The answers will drive you insane eventually. If you keep asking yourself questions like these, you find yourself slipping into martyr mode, unemployment, alcoholism, drug addiction, and death.

If one has any kind of interest in the Dallas Mavericks, there are a few questions one might want to ask in the light of last night's 117-108 home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Questions like:

"Whaddaya mean Dirk's not in the starting lineup?"

"What line of reasoning did the Organization use when they decided to let Ryan Hollins walk?"

"Why is a team that sucks black holes on the road being allowed to shoot 53% from the floor? Why is any team ever allowed to shoot 54.5% on three point shots?"

"What else has Coach got in his bag of tricks?"

"Why does the effort on the floor not reflect the amount of dedication everyone in the organization says they have to be the best they can be?"

These questions and oh so much more are swirling in my head right now. And they're not going to get answered to my satisfaction. I don't know these men, I have no in with the Organization. I'm a fan; I'm excluded from the Need To Know no matter how much I wish or pretend otherwise.

So bury that desire and move on to what's next, because if I get hung up on what I want to know I'll go nuts. But. I can't help but wonder. And wonder if anybody else is asking these questions, people who do have the access, who do have the trust, who have the best interest for the Dallas Mavericks in mind.

One last question.

"We are all working for the same thing right now, right? An NBA title? Or has this season been written off for purposes of a championship?"
-BJ

Say It With A Hint Of English Accent

2010-01-27T17:24:00.000-06:00

Are you joking?

Some yutz with a byline has decided to explain why he's not sending any of his hard earned cash to help fund relief efforts in Haiti. If you've been under a rock the past couple of weeks, a massive earthquake hit Port-au-Prince, followed by a bad aftershock a few days later. The Red Cross, Doctors without Borders, and other charities and humanitarian aid organizations are overwhelmed as they work to care for the hurt and dispossessed, and they're not done counting the dead.

Mr. Shirley . . . it is your money and you are perfectly within your rights to spend it as you choose. This is also a society that permits and encourages free discourse, so you're within your rights to publicly state your opinion. The flip side to that is I'm within my rights to call you an inhumane jackass who has never gone hungry, never slept cold, and never suffered a loss so great it cracks the shell of your immense egotism. By your line of reasoning, sir -- people should not live and rebuild in a disaster prone region -- the human race shouldn't live anywhere. Furthermore, I fail to see how standing back and watching the body count rise from several hundred thousand to a few million will build a better, richer, and more stable Haiti.

In a nutshell, allow me to retort:

-BJ

Game 44, Dallas Mavericks visit New York Knickerbockers

2010-01-24T15:04:00.000-06:00

Game 3 of the J-Ho, Let's Go watch.

Honest? I didn't sack out until almost five this morning, so when I got up around ten and somehow succeeded in pissing off the world, I went back to bed. I just got up and as I was sitting at the computer I heard one of the media guys ask Shawn Marion, "When was the last time you were in a fifty-point game?"

Me; "What?!?"

Straight to NBA.com, and it's true, oh my brothers and only friends. After getting more or less manhandled by the 76ers, the Mavericks hopped an Amtrak to the city and fed the Knickerbockers to a yard full of pissed-off pit bulls. And this without having Jason Kidd and Erick Dampier. Kidd had to fly back to Dallas to deal with a family issue -- I hope the Kidd clan's all okay. Dampier's had problems with fluid buildup on one knee.

I'm going to rewind the vid and get back to you in a bit.
-BJ

Game 43, Dallas Mavericks visit Philidelphia 76ers

2010-01-22T17:57:00.003-06:00

Game 2 of the J-Ho, Let's Go watch.

The Mavericks took the night train to Philadelphia from Washington (literally, that's what they did). According to Sefko at the Morning News, Tim Thomas is back with the team after dealing with a family issue (hope everybody's okay!) and Eds Najera is still inactive. Word on Josh is he's starting tonight, but that's not 100% for-sure.

Okay, let's dissect the 76ers. According to Basketball Reference, the 76ers score 97.8 points per game whilst allowing 101.0, placing them 22nd and 19th in those categories. They shoot 45.4% from the floor including 34.8% on threes, grab 40.8 rebounds, average 20.5 assists, 8.2 steals, 5.8 blocks, and 14.3 turnovers. Their opponents shoot 47.3% from the floor including 41.2% (!) on threes, grab 41.0 rebounds, and average 22.5 assists, 7.1 steals, 4.3 blocks, and 15.1 turnovers.

This is also the first time in a long while the Mavericks have had to deal with the Can't Sir, Allen Iverson. Who has been voted into the starting lineup for this year's All Star game. There's a line from Memoirs of a Geisha, where the narrator reflects on her position on a Top Ten list, and she notes that people have a hard time seperating what's great from what they've just heard of. No further questions, Your Honor.

Tip-off in two minutes:

later

Great. Now that I'm done barfing up blood, let's tackle the numbers.

FG% -- DAL 39.5% (20.0% 3pt), PHI 43.0% (20.0% 3pt)
Rebounds -- DAL 42, PHI 49

Less possessions -- Dallas's percentage figures on 32 makes off 81 shots, Philadelphia's figure on 37 makes off 86 -- and bad shooting. Whenever Dirk shoots in the low twenties and Jason Terry goes 2-12 and el zilcho on threes (pause to cough up fresh blood) things tend to go horribly wrong no matter how bad the other guys are on defense.

So much for the idea that the team can weather bad shooting nights, and by extension so much for serious title hopes. Remind me to avoid Basketbawful's Worst of the Weekend on Monday.

As pertaining to the J-Ho, Let's Go watch, I'm going to pass the peach to Mike Fisher:

Josh entered at 4:18 of the first. He watched Jason Kidd attempt a 3.

Then, at 3:58, he touched the ball for the first time.

At 3:55, he shot a jumper and missed.

At 3:23, he touched it again, shot another jumper, and missed.

At 2:48, he made a 3.

At 1:20 he took another 3 and missed it.

That, my friends is what we call "shot-hunting." In 158 seconds – from the first time Josh touched the ball to the last errant 3-pointer – Howard recorded no assists, no rebounds, no steals, no fouls, no free throws … but four shots. All of them jumpshots. Two of them from 22-feet or more. Three of them missed.

Fast-forward to the final quarter. Mavs down 83-72 with 5:30 left. Here comes Josh, dribbling into the lane, in traffic, and he attempts a dribble-and-spin move. It’s like something the psychedelic Robbie Benson tried in "One-On-One." It’s not Josh’s game, he doesn’t have these sort of handles, it doesn’t fit the flow of what Dallas is trying to do.

And predicably, the ball bounds out of Josh’s control, into the hands of the Sixers for a turnover and a steal.

Buncha jump shots, midrange or more.

That is not what we need from Howard.

(gagcoughsplat)

Does anybody have a HandiWipe?

Final: 92-81, Philadelphia
-BJ

Game 42, Dallas Mavericks visit Washington Wizards

2010-01-20T17:55:00.002-06:00

Or, Game 1 of the J-Ho, Let's Go watch.

The word's just come down; Josh Howard will miss tonight's game with a case of the stomach flu. Assuming Coach will go back to Emergency Starting Lineup #1, which has JJ Barea starting at the 2 and Jason Terry coming off the bench. I have to do some shopping tonight, but the tape deck's locked and loaded.

Let's see, according to Yahoo! Sports, Washington averages 44.7% made field goals, including 35.1% threes, putting them 23rd and 16th in the league in those categories. They score 99.2 points per game and grab 42.3 boards, while allowing the opponents to score 102.7 and grab 43.4 boards. Franchise player Gilbert Arenas is out until the moon explodes after performing Stupid Gun Tricks--

Yeah, a quick thought on that. As Americans we have the right to arm ourselves in order to see to our own safety (up to a point, anyway). As a columnist with ESPN notes, though, there is a right way and a wrong way to own a weapon. The right way is filling out the forms, taking the safety classes, waiting whatever the legal waiting periods are in your area, making sure your weapon's secure at all times, and not carrying when and where it's prohibited to do so. Childishness can be charming when it's a matter of playing to the crowds at a basketball game, but it's not a good thing when you're pissed off and have a loaded weapon within easy reach. People die in situations like that.

To be edited later.

later

Another much tighter'n it should've been situation. Let's take a look at the figures:

FG% -- DAL 45.9% (20.0% 3pt), WAS 45.0% (38.5% 3pt)
Rebounds -- DAL 41, WAS 41

Split between Washington overperforming and the Mavs underperforming -- another game that should've been nowhere near as close as it was. Basically, we got a five-point lead after a quarter and spent the rest of the game just barely treading water. Coach started Jason Terry instead of JJ Barea. Given how JJ's been struggling with his shot I see why; 1-10 from the floor including el zilcho on threes.

This puts a dent in my theory about how the Mavericks' defensive struggles of late have had to do with Josh Howard's presence. I'm not sure how statistically significant 00.3% is when it comes to figuring defensive efficiency. I do know the Wizards were allowed to hit an awful lot of threes and I'd swear there were moments in the second half when they were getting a guided tour of the charity stripe -- our fault, the Mavs made some dumb ones inside leading to and-ones. Dirk would've had to eat a Crow Whopper if the Wizards had scored on the final possession and won the game -- his offensive foul gave the Wiz back the ball down one with 6.7 seconds left.

Thank God for the Matrix, who blocked the Wizards' last shot. Coach, kiss that man.

Final: 94-93, Mavericks
-BJ

The Devil On My Shoulder

2010-01-19T09:28:00.001-06:00

After I posted some thoughts on the Maverick's defensive numbers last week, JakeN commented that, in his opinion, the Mavs might be better served by trading Josh Howard.

I'm afraid he might be right.

I've been writing for a long time that the Mavs really need Josh Howard back. Josh Howard, the potential All Star, very good defender, guy who can slash and spin straw into in-the-paint gold.

We're still waiting.

Josh has been physically present for a while now, and he's started the last four games at the 2-guard. In the games he's started, the Mavs are 2-2 and the bad guys are shooting 47.58% including 32.83% on three pointers. Howard's field goal percentage in that same stretch figure to 25.78%, and he's got an average plus-minus of -7.25. Here's some more detail from David Lord:

The Mavs began this season with Josh mostly in street clothes, as he worked his way back from injury for as month or so. Without him, they logged a 13-7 record, which over 82 games would put them on pace for 53-54 wins and a likely 2nd-6th playoff seed in the West.

But now he's back and has played quite a few games. With him added to the lineup, after Sunday in Toronto they are a glittering, wonderful, impressive (wait for it) … 13-7.

There is something about Josh Howard's playing that is missing. Call it the balls-out effort, call it a new sense of skittishness (reasonable fear is something people can learn very late in life), call it bad vibes. But the Mavericks were winning as many games when JJ Barea was starting (!!!).

Coach hasn't made any adjustments to limit his playing time or his possessions. I can see why he might want to allow Josh some rope; if he's been a good boy it makes sense to demonstrate confidence in him by allowing him the opportunity to play through mistakes.

I disagree. I respect Josh, I do. But I don't have that much faith in his better judgment. I just don't. From the standpoint of a total layperson, the conclusion drawn from the numbers is that allowing Josh the luxury of trying to get his game going is costing us wins. It can also be construed, given the drop in defensive effort and efficiency, that it's fucked the Mavericks up as a unit. How and why that could be, I don't have enough information to even hazard a reasonable guess.

In the wash, I think the real question that needs to be asked -- and to be totally honest, should've been asked weeks ago -- is simple. Is it fair -- to the team, to the coaches, to whoever's gotta be the man (usually Dirk) -- to turn the Mavericks back into a one-man band whilst we wait and pray for Josh to get his head screwed on straight?

I give him another two weeks -- that's seven games, three of which are against winning teams. Call it the J-Ho, Let's Go watch.
-BJ

The Midseason Blahs

2010-01-14T00:57:00.001-06:00

They have hit, and hit hard.

In the last two weeks, the Mavericks have allowed the bad guys to do this:

Field Goal Percentage:
44.4% HOU (45.1% DAL)
40.2% SAC (48.6% DAL)
63.4% LAL (37.8% DAL)
47.5% DET (44.2% DAL)
52.6% SAS (49.4% DAL)
53.2% UTA (41.2% DAL)
48.8% LAL (42.9% DAL)

Points in the Paint:
40 HOU (52 DAL)
44 SAC (38 DAL)
52 LAL (36 DAL)
44 DET (34 DAL)
50 SAS (44 DAL)
50 UTA (34 DAL)
44 LAL (34 DAL)

Let me crunch the numbers here . . .

Okay. According to my arithmetic, the Mavericks are allowing the bad guys to score on an average of 50.01% of their shots, while only scoring on 44.17% on their own shots. They are also allowing 46.29 points in the paint, while only getting 38.86 of their own points there. In that same stretch, the Mavericks are 3-4, and only one of those wins is against an above .500 team.

For a team with pretensions to being the best in the world, those numbers are appalling. The Mavericks began the season as a top-tier defensive squad. We were either overachieving then, or we're underachieving now, and I don't know which terrifies me more.

In spite of getting Shawn Marion, in spite of having Howard back, to my eyes we're right back where we were last year. The whole idea behind those upgrades was to build a team that could weather shooting slumps from Dirk and Jet. That's stopped being the case, and I haven't gotten a satisfactory explanation as to why.

There's something else. I read an essay on the Moneyball a while back. JakeDFW pointed out some interesting statistics which in retrospect were a harbinger for the team meltdown that happened later that year. Emphasis mine:

I should have realized this in mid-season. In my mid-season review last year, I wrote: "The . . . thing to take from this is that there is a reason for what we're seeing: A drop in overall defensive aggressiveness." For a coach that lives and breathes defense, and a team that showed an ability to perform at quite a high level, a lack of aggressiveness illustrated one thing: The team was tuning out their coach.

Should we be alarmed? Or am I reading too much into a bad stretch of games that might just be an extended case study of Shit Happening?
-BJ

Break Out The Hankies

2010-01-09T02:29:00.001-06:00

To the disappointment of the younger set of panting ladyfolk, Kris Humphries is turning in his blues and packing his kitbag for cooler climates. Gina Miller first brought down The Word via Facebook:

marc stein (his twitter name is too confusing for me) reporting that mavs trade humphries & shawne williams 2 nets for najera.

Good to see the ass end of Williams, going away. Less good to see the back of Humphries. I hope his stay in Jersey lasts about two seconds; he deserves better than that particular corner of sporting Hell.

Safe journey, Kris. And thank you.
-BJ

What Is A Valuable Player?

2009-12-29T07:53:00.001-06:00

First of all, with victories over Cleveland and Denver, the Mavericks gave me everything I wanted for Christmas. I love my guys. :-D

It's interesting, though. If you tuned in on Sunday looking for an epic duel between two top ten scorers and MVP canadites, I do apologize. The 'Melo versus Dirk matchup could be in the dictionary under 'anticlimax,' both performing under their scoring averages.

Carmelo Anthony: 16 points, 5-19 for 26% FGP, 12 rebounds (5 offensive), 4 assists
Averages: 30 points, 47% FGP, 6.4 rebounds (2.1 offensive), 3.3 assists

Dirk Nowitzki: 13 points, 6-15 for 40% FGP, 11 rebounds (zero offensive), 2 assists
Averages: 25.5 points, 48.5% FGP, 8.1 rebounds (0.9 offensive), 2.6 assists

Last week, Chauncey Billups went down with a strained groin muscle, and as of Sunday the Nuggets were 1-3 without him. Situation for Denver; at home, second night of a back-to-back for the Mavericks, the go-to guy not putting up his usual numbers. This should have been an opportunity for Anthony to rally the Nuggets around him, settling his teammates down when the Mavericks went on runs, kibitzing with Billups and Coach Karl on how to stop the Dallas centers -- Drew and Damp lit up Nene and the Birdman like cigarettes -- not letting his frustration getting the better of him when the calls weren't going Denver's way. A chance to set his seal on the Nuggets, to announce to the world that Billups might call the plays but he is their heart and spirit and best hope for excellence.

Instead, Anthony played faces with the refs, failed to inspire his teammates into performing above and beyond, spent key stretches of the game on the bench in foul trouble, and finally got himself disqualified in the fourth after knocking Josh Howard off his feet. Anthony got pissed and added some arm-action to body-ing up Josh. (BTW, JR Smith's foul on Jason Terry in the third was a flagrant.)

In short, because Anthony couldn't control his temper he was not on the floor to help the Nuggets capitalize on several late mistakes by the Mavericks and take back control of the game. At the risk of being called a homer, Carmelo Anthony does not mean a tenth so much to the Nuggets as Dirk does to the Mavericks (or Kobe does to the Lakers, LeBron to the Cavaliers, Nash to the Suns, etc). In the last six games Denver has demonstrated who their leader is, and 'Melo ain't it. He does not belong in the MVP discussion, I don't care where his averages are.

I'll go even further. Here's Billups's postgame thoughts:

"I thought we fought hard at different spurts at the game, but we didn’t fight very smart," Billups said. "So much of this game, especially when you are playing against good teams, is being smart, not making the same mistakes over and over again during the course of the game. Knowing what they are going to do throughout the game and try to take certain things away. We just didn’t do a very good job of that."

I'm going to do a little guesswork and give you a prediction. Denver is an passionate, yet immature bunch of guys who require a certain amount of management to be most effective. That manager has just publicly called them morons. Now if I'm a hypercompetative fourteen year old boy, how do I take that? Billups hasn't lost the team, but I think their confidence in him's gonna take a hit.

The Nuggets will finish in the top eight, of course -- they're too talented not to. But they have very little depth and might be coming to a crisis of leadership. MavsMonkey says . . . upper-four seed, out in the second round.
-BJ